How often does an uncorroborated claim ever get confirmed?
When a strange story first reaches the wire carrying only a specialist outlet or a single witness, how often does a mainstream or primary source ever pick it up?
The wire produces a byproduct: a systematic record of how strange claims move through the press. This is where that gets measured, under rules set in advance.
Every analysis below was written down — hypothesis, method, confounds and the earliest date we are allowed to look — before the data to test it existed. Results are published whatever they say. A register where most entries read “no effect” is the point, not an embarrassment: it is the only thing that makes the occasional positive worth anything.
Two standing limits on everything here. This data measures reporting, not phenomena — report counts track newsrooms and population, not objects in the sky. And corroboration cannot be fully separated from syndication, so every rate below is an upper bound.
Of the stories that reach the wire carrying only a specialist outlet or a single witness, how many are ever picked up by mainstream or primary sources?
| Opened at | Stories tracked | Ever corroborated | Rate | Median delay | 90th pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tier 3 | 52 | 1 | 1.9% | 1h | 1h |
| Tier 4 | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | — | — |
When a strange story first reaches the wire carrying only a specialist outlet or a single witness, how often does a mainstream or primary source ever pick it up?
Satellite trains are a known and frequently confirmed cause of misidentified sightings. How much of the reporting volume do they account for?
For the stories that do get corroborated, what does the delay distribution look like?
Do the outlets that open the most stories also open the ones that get confirmed, or are those different outlets?
When a high-strangeness claim gets traction, how often does a documented skeptical response follow, and how quickly?
A persistent folk belief holds that strange reports cluster around the full moon. Does the reporting data show it?
Everything above is available as JSON at /api/v1 under CC BY 4.0 — the gradings, cluster structure, corroboration timings, daily metric series and the register itself. Article excerpt text is deliberately excluded; it belongs to the publishers.
If you use it, cite it. A permanent archived release with a DOI follows once there is a year of data behind it.